The electorate is divided between the aspirations for independence and the desire to maintain its well-being.

On Tuesday, Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, will hold elections with no reliable forecasts, torn between its aspirations for independence and the desire to maintain its well-being, all while facing U.S. interest in acquiring the Arctic island.

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The only poll published over a month ago, with 30% of respondents undecided, points to a victory for the socialist Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) party, led by President Mute B. Egede, with 31% of the vote, ahead of the social democratic Siumut party. Both parties have governed together for the past three years, although they would each lose several points compared to the 2021 elections.

The Demokratiit party is projected to be the third-largest political force, with nearly 19% of the vote, surpassing Naleraq—the party pushing most aggressively to sever ties with Denmark—despite Naleraq gaining several points.

If this scenario materializes, IA and Siumut could once again form a government. These two parties have led Greenlandic administrations since the establishment of autonomy in 1979, which was revised in 2009 to expand self-governance and include the right to self-determination.

These elections have generated the most anticipation both inside and outside Greenland, with approximately 43,000 people voting to elect the 31 members of the Inatsisartut (Parliament).

“The future of Greenland is at stake. And the parties want different things, so we’ll see what direction Greenland takes,” said Nuuk student Aviaq Pedersen.

Trump’s Interest Looms Over the Elections

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated interest in acquiring Greenland has hovered over the electoral campaign, forcing the main political parties to take a stance—most of them firmly opposing his ambitions.

In his latest social media statement on Sunday, Trump expressed support for Greenland’s right to decide its future, promising security and “billions of dollars” in investments.

In an interview with Danish public broadcaster DR, released today but recorded before Trump’s latest remarks, Egede took a stronger stance than in previous statements, calling for “respect” and advocating for a “robust” government and a solid economic foundation to pave the way for independence—though without setting a specific timeline.

Greenland’s economy remains heavily dependent on Denmark, which contributes around 40% of its revenue. The island, home to nearly 57,000 people spread across 2.2 million square kilometers (80% of which is permanently covered in ice), relies on fishing for 90% of its exports.

Rejection of Trump’s proposal has been widespread among politicians and the public. While most Greenlanders favor independence, a recent poll found that 85% do not want to become part of the United States.

The Siumut party, historically the dominant force in Greenlandic politics, has indirectly felt the impact of Trump’s influence and the renewed debate on independence. While all parliamentary parties support independence, the liberal Attasut takes a more nuanced position.

During the campaign, Siumut has sent mixed signals, leading to the departure of Aki-Matilda Høegh-Dam, one of Greenland’s two representatives in the Danish Parliament.

The Impact of the “Orange Wave”

Høegh-Dam has joined Naleraq, which has also welcomed Qupanuq Olsen, Greenland’s most well-known influencer, famous for her English-language videos about Inuit culture.

Naleraq has previously participated as a junior partner in two governing coalitions, most recently with IA in 2021. However, that coalition lasted only a year, breaking apart due to several controversies—including a proposal by Naleraq leader Pele Broberg that only people of Inuit descent should be allowed to vote in a potential independence referendum.

Naleraq is the party most in favor of strengthening ties with the United States, advocating for a free association treaty in exchange for financial support and security. The U.S. already has a military base in Greenland and could establish more under a seven-decade-old agreement with Denmark.

During the campaign, Naleraq has been the most active political force on social media. Its supporters, dressed in orange attire, have made their presence felt in televised debates organized by public broadcaster KNR, which has toured Greenland’s major towns.

Greenlanders Are More Concerned About Well-Being

Independence—an issue no political party has dared to set a concrete timeline for—has not been the main focus of the campaign. Instead, topics related to social welfare have taken center stage.

According to a poll by the newspaper Sermitsiaq, 85% of Greenlanders believe the next government’s top priority should be addressing problems in healthcare, finance, and housing.

Deficiencies in healthcare and education help explain why the number of Greenlanders living in Denmark has risen by 23% since 2008, reaching approximately 17,000.

“Politicians need to work harder on social and healthcare issues. The shortage of doctors is a major problem that needs to be solved. That’s my top priority,” said social worker Lilly Michaelsen. However, most of these expatriates will not be able to vote in Tuesday’s elections, as voters must have had permanent residency in Greenland for at least six months, with exceptions for students and diplomats.

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